Who will win the US election?

PJ Botha • November 4, 2024

2024 will be remembered as election year, with more people than ever before casting ballots worldwide.
The US elections on November 5th will be the most significant election.
It is the most significant since it will influence not just the future of the nation but also that of the entire world.

The following topics were covered in one of the fascinating discussions we had at the Ninety One Advisor Forum with Kevin Lings, Stanlib's economist as one of the speakers.

Who is going to win the election?
Although it depends on the poll you use, you can't always trust them because they are somewhat biased towards the reader demographic.
The website fivethirtyeight.com, which aggregates all the data, is a poll of polls.
According to this website the difference between Trump and Harris was as much as 3% in September which shrank to 0.9% on November 4.
Trump's side is gaining ground.
Harris has a slight advantage according to the polls, but momentum is on Trump’s side.

According to the polls, Clinton would have won the Trump vs. Clinton election. The explanation that was later offered was that there were many Trump fans who were also closet backers. 

You will have to support Trump if you are a betting man, and you look at the election odds.
Trump has a 53.3% chance of winning, while Harris has a 46.3% chance, according to electionbettingodds.com.

In the end, the most important question is whether the election outcome will matter.
The answer is a simple “ yes”. Most things will remain the same if Harris prevails, but if Trump wins there will be significant policy changes.
One of Trump's main campaign pledges, raising import tariffs, will have to be fulfilled if he wins.
He pledged that all Chinese imports would be subject to a 60% import tax on most goods and 100% on Chinese-imported electric vehicles. It now become clear why Elon Musk has suddenly become so interested in the campaign.
Increased import taxes of 10–20% will be applied to all other countries commodities and products, which will hurt South African exports.
Another possibility is that SA will be excluded from AGOA trade, which will have a negative impact on our exports. But it only accounts for 2.7% of total exports. The overall BRICS commerce in SA is seven times that of AGOA.
If this tariff hikes occur, how will China react?
They and all other countries will begin to take care of themselves. There will be more buzz surrounding BRICS and a new currency.

If the tariffs are implemented, everything will ultimately become more costly in the USA, which may lead to a second wave of inflation concerns. To counteract this, interest rates in the USA will need to be raised once more.

The US dollar and US stocks will likely rise if Trump wins, while US bonds will likely fall.
His policies, particularly those pertaining to immigration and imports, will benefit the US economy and job opportunities in the near future.
However, given the rising cost of goods and the reactions of other nations, we will have to wait and see whether it doesn't have a detrimental effect on them in the medium to long run.

Whoever wins will have an impact on the rest of the planet.

Why a financial plan is more than an investment portfolio

By Bovest • October 7, 2026
When most people start thinking about their financial future, they go straight to the products. Which index fund is performing best right now? Should I put money into a tax-free savings account or property? What about offshore tech stocks? Those questions feel natural. But they won’t necessarily get you where you want to go. This article explains why the financial products you choose matter far less than the plan they serve. Learn how to craft a clear, holistic financial plan — not just a well-diversified portfolio — and discover what really determines whether you build lasting wealth. The importance of a holistic financial plan Selecting quality investments matters. That said: choosing products without a broader blueprint is like buying building materials before you have drafted the architectural blueprint. Because in the end, it is not simply a matter of creating wealth for the short run, it is about creating wealth for life. At Bovest, our foundation rests on a simple principle: an investment portfolio is merely the engine, but a holistic financial plan is the GPS that directs you on your route. What are the 5 components of a financial plan A holistic financial plan does not start with market performance or product features. It begins with context. A comprehensive plan connects five distinct areas of your life into one cohesive strategy:

GESPREK OOR WELVAARTSKEPPING IN SUID AFRIKA

By Agulhas Besprekingsforum: Dr. Riaan Botha • October 1, 2026
Die gesprek het plaasgevind in Struisbaai se rolbal klubhuis en is bygewoon deur 35 persone. Die aanbieding wat ek gedoen het, het die persoonlike uitdagings van ’n welvaartskepper beskryf. Punte wat uitgelig is: Wat is jou passie? Kies ’n strategie om jou passie uit te leef. Kennis is die sleutel tot suksesvolle welvaartskepping. Leer goeie geld gewoontes aan. Positiewe uitkyk op die lewe - Beheer wat binne jou vermoë is. Bou ’n netwerk van goeie mense wat jy vertrou. Bou jou persoonlike handelsnaam. Welvaartskepping is ’n lang reis. Geen kitsrykdom nie. Bovest sal jou help met finansiële advies: Om persoonlike finansiële doelwitte te stel. Om ‘n monitor program op te stel vir beplande finansiële doelwitte. Daar het ’n goeie gesprek na die aanbieding gevolg. Die huidige werkloosheid situasie in SA is bespreek en dat veral jong mense hul eie besighede moet begin om persoonlike welvaart te skep. Aangesien die ’n ouer gehoor was in welvaart bewaring ook bespreek. Die voorsitter, Danie Schutte, het ten slotte sy dank uitgespreek dat daar ’n positiewe situasie vir welvaartskepping in SA uitgebeeld is. Dit is veral vir jong mense bemoedigend om nie oorsee te gaan werk soek nie maar hier plaaslik ’n inkomste te skep.