Who will win the US election?

PJ Botha • November 4, 2024

2024 will be remembered as election year, with more people than ever before casting ballots worldwide.
The US elections on November 5th will be the most significant election.
It is the most significant since it will influence not just the future of the nation but also that of the entire world.

The following topics were covered in one of the fascinating discussions we had at the Ninety One Advisor Forum with Kevin Lings, Stanlib's economist as one of the speakers.

Who is going to win the election?
Although it depends on the poll you use, you can't always trust them because they are somewhat biased towards the reader demographic.
The website fivethirtyeight.com, which aggregates all the data, is a poll of polls.
According to this website the difference between Trump and Harris was as much as 3% in September which shrank to 0.9% on November 4.
Trump's side is gaining ground.
Harris has a slight advantage according to the polls, but momentum is on Trump’s side.

According to the polls, Clinton would have won the Trump vs. Clinton election. The explanation that was later offered was that there were many Trump fans who were also closet backers. 

You will have to support Trump if you are a betting man, and you look at the election odds.
Trump has a 53.3% chance of winning, while Harris has a 46.3% chance, according to electionbettingodds.com.

In the end, the most important question is whether the election outcome will matter.
The answer is a simple “ yes”. Most things will remain the same if Harris prevails, but if Trump wins there will be significant policy changes.
One of Trump's main campaign pledges, raising import tariffs, will have to be fulfilled if he wins.
He pledged that all Chinese imports would be subject to a 60% import tax on most goods and 100% on Chinese-imported electric vehicles. It now become clear why Elon Musk has suddenly become so interested in the campaign.
Increased import taxes of 10–20% will be applied to all other countries commodities and products, which will hurt South African exports.
Another possibility is that SA will be excluded from AGOA trade, which will have a negative impact on our exports. But it only accounts for 2.7% of total exports. The overall BRICS commerce in SA is seven times that of AGOA.
If this tariff hikes occur, how will China react?
They and all other countries will begin to take care of themselves. There will be more buzz surrounding BRICS and a new currency.

If the tariffs are implemented, everything will ultimately become more costly in the USA, which may lead to a second wave of inflation concerns. To counteract this, interest rates in the USA will need to be raised once more.

The US dollar and US stocks will likely rise if Trump wins, while US bonds will likely fall.
His policies, particularly those pertaining to immigration and imports, will benefit the US economy and job opportunities in the near future.
However, given the rising cost of goods and the reactions of other nations, we will have to wait and see whether it doesn't have a detrimental effect on them in the medium to long run.

Whoever wins will have an impact on the rest of the planet.


By Geo Botha December 4, 2025
I recently signed up for one of my bucket list items, the demanding Comrades Marathon. It’s something that I always had in the back of my mind, and I said to myself that if I ever where to take on the 87km beast, I am going to be prepared. So, as I successfully entered and received my number, I immediately did 2 things: 1) I got a coach: Someone who is experience and can guide me week by week, month by month leading up to the Ultra Marathon 2) I got a training partner : After using all my persuasion skills, I convinced a friend to join me on this journey. Not only for the comradery, but more as an accountability partner, to make sure I show up for training even though I might not feel like it For many of us, we want to make sure 2026 is our best year yet, not just physically, but financially as well. How can we be more productive and make more money or at least manage it better? In his Book Atomic Habit, James clear writes about the ‘Commitment device’ in chapter 14. A Commitment device, also referred to as the ‘ Ulysses pact’ is a choice you make in the present, that controls your actions in the future. It is a way to lock in future behaviour, bind you to good habits and restrict you from the bad ones. Some examples include: - Eating out of smaller plates – to limit calorie intake. - Unsubscribe to emails and apps – to waste less time - Setting up an outlet timer, to cut off the Wi-Fi at 9pm per night - to limit social media or series binging. - Keep your phone in another room when working – to avoid distractions When it comes to your finances here are a couple of things you can try to make 2026 you most financially rewarding year yet. - Automate your investments: Remove the temptation to spend your money by setting up debit order for the money to be invested as soon as it hits your bank account - Appoint a financial partner – this can be an advisor, friend or spouse: his person must be strict and diligent and keep you to your goals. Schedule quarterly calls to go through your investment accounts to see how much it has grown - Buy groceries only twice a week: We almost always buy things we don’t need – limit your number of visits to the store - Let you partner hide your credit card during the week and have an x amount of cash available. This might sound harsh but can be extremely effective as we swipe or tab often without thinking. There’s so many examples of how we can adjust our behaviour by setting up ‘ Commitment devices. I’d like to hear your favourites so please send them through to geo@bovest.co.za and let’s help each other to make 2026 memorable and profitable. Geo Botha CFP® Marketing Director
By Yvonne Velthuysen December 4, 2025
Dearest clients and colleagues. While I was contemplating about this month’s topic, I felt led to share the following testimony with all of you. I really hope it will encourage you and call you to action. Before I begin, I am sure you will get enough information about the markets and politics from my colleagues, so I am happy to divert and continue my story. Just a bit of background. I have been on diamond Vitality status with Discovery for many years. I have faithfully done my yearly check ups every year and also the specific tests that Discovery requests. I slipped up after Covid with my mammogram and pap smear and I didn’t know I had to do a colonoscopy. Just before my birthday in July, I had severe stomach pain. I am not a person who likes to visit a doctor but here I certainly learned a lesson. If you have pain, your body is telling you there is something wrong, so don’t be tough, just go and check it out. I was diagnosed with colon cancer. EVERYTHING changes in an instant. The way you look at life, your values, how you see people, your relationship with your Creator and Saviour. Everything happened so fast and I had to go in for major surgery. After 10 days in ICU, fighting for my life and a couple more days in the surgical ward, I was discharged. So many things were going through my mind. Will I see Christmas again? Will I ever be strong enough to enjoy life again? Will I see my children and grandchildren again? Will I have to go for chemotherapy and radiation? Doubt and fear started to slowly enter my mind. The battle is in the mind. Then breakthrough! My tests came back and I was clear. No cancer in my body. Surgery was successful. Oncologist was happy. I do have to be monitored regularly, but praise God? Here I must elaborate. I have a strong support group who carried me in prayer. I have faith in our Almighty God who still heals today. Bovest as a company also supported me phenomenally. Thank you to all 🙏  My message for all of you is the following: please go to the doctor if you have pain or discomfort. Please do your mammogram, pap smear, prostate and colonoscopy tests regularly. Prostate test now is just a blood test. Please make sure your severe illness and income protection cover is in place. You really need it. Speak to your advisor about it. Don’t be like an ostrich, prevention is far better than cure. Surround yourself with positive people. Spend time in the Word. It is alive and it is healing to your body, soul and spirit. You are welcome to reach out to me anytime. May you have an amazing 2026 and please look after yourself. Kind regards Yvonne