Who will win the US election?

PJ Botha • November 4, 2024

2024 will be remembered as election year, with more people than ever before casting ballots worldwide.
The US elections on November 5th will be the most significant election.
It is the most significant since it will influence not just the future of the nation but also that of the entire world.

The following topics were covered in one of the fascinating discussions we had at the Ninety One Advisor Forum with Kevin Lings, Stanlib's economist as one of the speakers.

Who is going to win the election?
Although it depends on the poll you use, you can't always trust them because they are somewhat biased towards the reader demographic.
The website fivethirtyeight.com, which aggregates all the data, is a poll of polls.
According to this website the difference between Trump and Harris was as much as 3% in September which shrank to 0.9% on November 4.
Trump's side is gaining ground.
Harris has a slight advantage according to the polls, but momentum is on Trump’s side.

According to the polls, Clinton would have won the Trump vs. Clinton election. The explanation that was later offered was that there were many Trump fans who were also closet backers. 

You will have to support Trump if you are a betting man, and you look at the election odds.
Trump has a 53.3% chance of winning, while Harris has a 46.3% chance, according to electionbettingodds.com.

In the end, the most important question is whether the election outcome will matter.
The answer is a simple “ yes”. Most things will remain the same if Harris prevails, but if Trump wins there will be significant policy changes.
One of Trump's main campaign pledges, raising import tariffs, will have to be fulfilled if he wins.
He pledged that all Chinese imports would be subject to a 60% import tax on most goods and 100% on Chinese-imported electric vehicles. It now become clear why Elon Musk has suddenly become so interested in the campaign.
Increased import taxes of 10–20% will be applied to all other countries commodities and products, which will hurt South African exports.
Another possibility is that SA will be excluded from AGOA trade, which will have a negative impact on our exports. But it only accounts for 2.7% of total exports. The overall BRICS commerce in SA is seven times that of AGOA.
If this tariff hikes occur, how will China react?
They and all other countries will begin to take care of themselves. There will be more buzz surrounding BRICS and a new currency.

If the tariffs are implemented, everything will ultimately become more costly in the USA, which may lead to a second wave of inflation concerns. To counteract this, interest rates in the USA will need to be raised once more.

The US dollar and US stocks will likely rise if Trump wins, while US bonds will likely fall.
His policies, particularly those pertaining to immigration and imports, will benefit the US economy and job opportunities in the near future.
However, given the rising cost of goods and the reactions of other nations, we will have to wait and see whether it doesn't have a detrimental effect on them in the medium to long run.

Whoever wins will have an impact on the rest of the planet.

Business Owners: Don’t forget about yourself.

By Ruvan J Grobler • February 6, 2025
Business owners are wealthy, aren’t they? Most of them are in terms of equity in their own business, their main focus. But personal finance as a business owner goes much deeper and that’s where we’ve seen neglect. Here are two of the biggest mistakes I’ve seen business owners make with their personal finances: Neglect personal finances: Businesses need cash to expand. And all too often, the decision is made to invest all the cash back into the business instead of using a portion to expand personal portfolios. The thinking is always: “expanding the business will provide higher future income”. But this cycle only continues and compounds the personal finance neglect. We see business owners start planning for retirement after building the business their entire life. The retirement plan is to sell the business, but there is no buyer and no personal investment portfolio to fall back on. Insurance overcontribution: Life insurance will most definitely provide for loved ones on your passing and protect your finances against disability and illness. It’s a crucial part of financial planning and the first step towards moving toward financial certainty. But big insurance premiums will not bring you closer to financial freedom. I don’t blame you, there are many financial advisors who use business owners as an opportunity for large premium policies with large upfront commissions. Life insurance should be anchored in financial planning principles, only take out cover for the need identified through comprehensive analysis. Business owners understand risk, and to not diversify your own retirement income is a mistake you’ll come to realize when it’s too late. There can be a healthy mid-point between investing back into your business and investing in your personal finances. We often forget that financial planning provides solutions to problems around tax and estate planning, it’s not merely about insurance and investments. From operational effectiveness to successful distribution, business owners need to prioritize their time. Making it extremely important to have a trustworthy Wealth Manager who can effectively navigate the pitfalls and challenges of a successful business owner’s personal finances. What steps can you take with your Wealth Manager? Review your personal budget. Assess your level of risk and only cover what’s needed. Do a stock take of your investment portfolio. Set financial goals and allocate funds from your budget to reach them. Ruvan J Grobler RFP™ (PGDip Financial Planning)

How do I pay less tax?

By PJ Botha • January 17, 2025
"The only things that hurts more than paying an income tax is not having to pay an income tax." Dewar, Thomas. This quote is undoubtedly optimistic, but it also contains some truth. Tax payment is both a luxury and a hardship. Although you must pay taxes of some kind, there are ways to lessen your tax liability. It's critical to distinguish between tax avoidance and tax evasion before we begin. It goes without saying that tax avoidance is against the law and unacceptable. Tax avoidance from an investing standpoint refers to avoiding paying needless taxes as a result of poor investment planning. As February, the end of the financial year, is drawing near, now is the great time to assess your existing financial status and make the most of the tax benefits available to you. There are the following choices: Retirement Annuities Retirement Annuities (RAs) are among the best options for tax planning. You can take advantage of the following noteworthy tax advantages: Your voluntary donations to a RA are tax deductible up to 27.5% of your taxable income, or R350 000. This is known as an individual's tax benefit. This implies that the money you save in a RA may be taken into account when calculating your income tax and subtracted from the amount of tax due to SARS. For the duration of the investment, there are no applicable income, capital gains, or dividend taxes. Depending on prior lump sum withdrawals, up to R550 000 of your lump sum payout may be tax-free upon retirement. The remaining amount is thereafter subject to taxation at the rates specified in the retirement lump sum tax table. Neither a living annuity nor a RA are subject to estate duty. Lump amounts received by beneficiaries upon the death of a RA investor are free from estate duty (with the exception of contributions that are prohibited). Tax-free savings Different to a RA, the contributions to a tax-free savings account are made from post-tax income and you don’t get the tax benefit on contributions. However, you are free to take your money out whenever you choose. An excellent approach to supplement your retirement funds or save for a long-term objective, such as your children's university fees. During the investment period, no income, capital gains, or dividend taxes are due, just like with a RA. Remember that you have a lifetime contribution cap of R500 000 and an annual contribution cap of R36 000 (or R3 000 per month) for all of your tax-free savings accounts from all providers. Additional tax tactics you may use include: Tax loss harvesting: This tactic involves selling some financial assets at a loss to lower your tax obligation at the end of the year. You can use tax loss harvesting to offset capital gains that result from selling other investments or assets at a profit. Utilise your exemptions: You are eligible for a R 40,000 annual capital gains exemption. Perhaps it's time to move across investment funds or take a profit on a well-executed investment. You can also take advantage of an interest exemption for R 23 800 (R 34 500 for individuals over 65). Your investment plan may need to be reevaluated if your interest exceeds that amount. Donations: You are exempt from donation tax if you donate R100,000 annually. To lower your estate for estate duty reasons, now is an excellent moment to give R 100,000 to a family trust or your kids. You will also receive a deduction for your donation if it is made to a charity that has Section 18A approval. The aforementioned can undoubtedly lessen the tax burden, but it won't eliminate it. Paying your fair amount of taxes is important, but you shouldn't pay more than is necessary.
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