Who will win the US election?

PJ Botha • November 4, 2024

2024 will be remembered as election year, with more people than ever before casting ballots worldwide.
The US elections on November 5th will be the most significant election.
It is the most significant since it will influence not just the future of the nation but also that of the entire world.

The following topics were covered in one of the fascinating discussions we had at the Ninety One Advisor Forum with Kevin Lings, Stanlib's economist as one of the speakers.

Who is going to win the election?
Although it depends on the poll you use, you can't always trust them because they are somewhat biased towards the reader demographic.
The website fivethirtyeight.com, which aggregates all the data, is a poll of polls.
According to this website the difference between Trump and Harris was as much as 3% in September which shrank to 0.9% on November 4.
Trump's side is gaining ground.
Harris has a slight advantage according to the polls, but momentum is on Trump’s side.

According to the polls, Clinton would have won the Trump vs. Clinton election. The explanation that was later offered was that there were many Trump fans who were also closet backers. 

You will have to support Trump if you are a betting man, and you look at the election odds.
Trump has a 53.3% chance of winning, while Harris has a 46.3% chance, according to electionbettingodds.com.

In the end, the most important question is whether the election outcome will matter.
The answer is a simple “ yes”. Most things will remain the same if Harris prevails, but if Trump wins there will be significant policy changes.
One of Trump's main campaign pledges, raising import tariffs, will have to be fulfilled if he wins.
He pledged that all Chinese imports would be subject to a 60% import tax on most goods and 100% on Chinese-imported electric vehicles. It now become clear why Elon Musk has suddenly become so interested in the campaign.
Increased import taxes of 10–20% will be applied to all other countries commodities and products, which will hurt South African exports.
Another possibility is that SA will be excluded from AGOA trade, which will have a negative impact on our exports. But it only accounts for 2.7% of total exports. The overall BRICS commerce in SA is seven times that of AGOA.
If this tariff hikes occur, how will China react?
They and all other countries will begin to take care of themselves. There will be more buzz surrounding BRICS and a new currency.

If the tariffs are implemented, everything will ultimately become more costly in the USA, which may lead to a second wave of inflation concerns. To counteract this, interest rates in the USA will need to be raised once more.

The US dollar and US stocks will likely rise if Trump wins, while US bonds will likely fall.
His policies, particularly those pertaining to immigration and imports, will benefit the US economy and job opportunities in the near future.
However, given the rising cost of goods and the reactions of other nations, we will have to wait and see whether it doesn't have a detrimental effect on them in the medium to long run.

Whoever wins will have an impact on the rest of the planet.

OORSESE KINDERS EN JOU FINANSIËLE PLAN

By Dr. Riaan Botha • July 30, 2026
Internasionale lughawens in Suid-Afrika is bedrywig gedurende skoolvakansies, want kinders en kleinkinders wat oorsee woon, kom vir hul jaarlikse besoek by oupa en ouma kuier. Dit is opmerklik dat, wanneer die kinders in die ontvangslokale aankom, die glimlagte en opgewondenheid aansteeklik is. Die teenoorgestelde emosies is egter teenwoordig in die vertreklokale twee of drie weke later. Wanneer jy persoonlik deur hierdie emosionele ervarings geraak word, besef 'n ouer hoe hierdie realiteit, wat in baie Suid-Afrikaanse gesinne voorkom, jou familie se finansiële plan beïnvloed. Kom ons bespreek 'n paar aspekte hiervan: Jaarlikse reise na familie wat oorsee woon, is duur en daarom moet daarvoor begroot word. Nie alle kinders wat oorsee werk, het 'n standhoudende inkomste om hul lewenstandaard te befonds nie. Die moontlikheid bestaan daarom dat hulle soms deur hul ouers finansieel ondersteun moet word. Die beplanning van vererwing aan kinders is uniek omdat vaste bates hierdeur geraak word. Dit is byvoorbeeld nie prakties om die familie se woonhuis aan 'n kind wat oorsee woon, te laat vererf nie. Dit is bekend dat familiewelvaart meer as net materiële besittings behels. Daarom behoort familielede met mekaar gesprek te voer oor hoe familiebande sterk gehou kan word nadat vererwing plaasgevind het. Blootstelling aan die daaglikse ekonomiese aktiwiteite van ander lande verbreed die ervaringswêreld van kinders wat oorsee woon. Hierdie nuutgevonde kennis en ervaring kan weer met die Suid-Afrikaanse familielede gedeel word. Dit is bekend dat arbeid in ekonomies ontwikkelde lande, soos die VSA, Australië en verskeie Europese lande, duur is. Daarom moet daar begroot word vir enige arbeid wat oorsee benodig word, veral indien ondersteuningsdienste benodig word. Daar bestaan min twyfel dat die ervaring wat kinders oorsee opdoen, plaaslike finansiële beplanning binne families beïnvloed. Hierdie nuwe werkservarings kan ook 'n positiewe bydrae lewer tot die skepping en behoud van die familie se welvaart.

Offshore Investing: What Your R2 Million Allowance Actually Buys You

By Ruvan J Grobler • July 24, 2026
Is investing offshore just for people who've given up on South Africa? I get some version of this question a lot, and the honest answer is no. It's really just about not keeping all your eggs in one rand-denominated basket. And it got a lot more relevant this year, because in April 2026 the Reserve Bank doubled the Single Discretionary Allowance from R1 million to R2 million per person, per year. That's a meaningful jump, and it's worth understanding properly before you use it. Here's how the allowance system actually works. Every South African resident over 18 gets a Single Discretionary Allowance of R2 million a year. No SARS approval, no tax clearance, you just instruct your bank and off it goes, for travel, gifts, or offshore investing. On top of that sits the Foreign Investment Allowance, up to another R10 million a year, but that one needs a SARS Approval for International Transfer first, which comes off your tax compliance status on eFiling. Between the two, that's R12 million per person, per year, without needing special Reserve Bank sign-off. A couple, or a family with adult kids, can add that up quickly. Worth knowing too, this is different from the rand-denominated offshore funds most people already hold through their local platforms. Those use asset swap or feeder structures, and your allowance never actually leaves the country. Direct offshore investing means the money physically converts to dollars, pounds or euros and sits in an account in your own name, offshore. Different animal, different mechanics. Side note: if you've got a retirement annuity, you already have some offshore exposure, Regulation 28 lets retirement funds hold up to 45% offshore. That's real diversification, but it's locked inside a retirement structure with its own rules on access and estate treatment. Using your personal allowance is a completely separate lever, money you actually hold in your own name, offshore, that you can access, restructure or leave to whoever you want without waiting for retirement age. Who actually uses this in practice? Families with kids studying or working abroad. People planning to retire partly offshore, or just wanting a foreign currency buffer for when they travel. Business owners who've built most of their wealth locally and want a real counterweight sitting outside the country. It's rarely about chasing better returns, it's about not having every asset you own exposed to the same risks at the same time. So why bother with the direct route? Two reasons come up in almost every conversation I have about this: currency, and geography. On currency, if your salary is in rand, your house is in rand and your whole portfolio is in rand, your entire financial life rises and falls with one currency. Holding some of your wealth in hard currency doesn't mean you think the rand is doomed, it just means you're not betting your whole future on one outcome either way. On geography, the JSE makes up less than 1% of total global stock market value. Some of the biggest growth stories in the world right now, in tech, in healthcare, aren't listed here at all. Investing offshore isn't a vote against South Africa, it's just access to the other 99%. Now here's a case worth knowing about, because it shows how badly this can go if someone tries to get clever with the rules instead of just following them. In Singh v South African Reserve Bank, decided by the Pretoria High Court in 2023, an attorney and businessman moved R80 million between local accounts, with about R20 million of it headed for a UK bank account. The problem wasn't the amount, it was how it moved, in R1 million chunks, each one apparently using someone else's Single Discretionary Allowance instead of his own. His bank picked it up and reported it to the Reserve Bank, who placed a blocking order on the remaining R40 million sitting in his account back home. He went to court arguing his bank had approved the transfers, so it must have been fine. The court didn't agree. A bank can't lawfully approve something that breaches exchange control in the first place, and the blocking order stood. If you genuinely need to move more than R2 million a year, that's exactly what the Foreign Investment Allowance is for. It just takes proper paperwork, not creativity.  A few practical things that catch people out: Your allowance resets every calendar year, it doesn't carry over if you don't use it. A clean SARS record matters. Outstanding returns or disputes will delay your approval, and it can take up to three weeks even when everything's in order. Financial institutions want proof of where the money actually came from, especially as the amount grows. Moving a big amount in one go means you're stuck with whatever the exchange rate happens to be that day, that's a separate risk from the compliance side, and worth thinking through. One more thing, since estate planning is where I spend most of my time. Assets held directly offshore, in your own name, usually fall under the estate administration rules of wherever they're held, not just South Africa's. That can mean your executor needs a foreign grant of probate before anything can be dealt with, on top of the local process. It doesn't mean don't do it. It just means the structure deserves as much thought as the decision to invest offshore in the first place. This is general information, not advice tailored to your situation. Ruvan J Grobler FSA® PGDip (Financial planning)