Who will win the US election?

PJ Botha • November 4, 2024

2024 will be remembered as election year, with more people than ever before casting ballots worldwide.
The US elections on November 5th will be the most significant election.
It is the most significant since it will influence not just the future of the nation but also that of the entire world.

The following topics were covered in one of the fascinating discussions we had at the Ninety One Advisor Forum with Kevin Lings, Stanlib's economist as one of the speakers.

Who is going to win the election?
Although it depends on the poll you use, you can't always trust them because they are somewhat biased towards the reader demographic.
The website fivethirtyeight.com, which aggregates all the data, is a poll of polls.
According to this website the difference between Trump and Harris was as much as 3% in September which shrank to 0.9% on November 4.
Trump's side is gaining ground.
Harris has a slight advantage according to the polls, but momentum is on Trump’s side.

According to the polls, Clinton would have won the Trump vs. Clinton election. The explanation that was later offered was that there were many Trump fans who were also closet backers. 

You will have to support Trump if you are a betting man, and you look at the election odds.
Trump has a 53.3% chance of winning, while Harris has a 46.3% chance, according to electionbettingodds.com.

In the end, the most important question is whether the election outcome will matter.
The answer is a simple “ yes”. Most things will remain the same if Harris prevails, but if Trump wins there will be significant policy changes.
One of Trump's main campaign pledges, raising import tariffs, will have to be fulfilled if he wins.
He pledged that all Chinese imports would be subject to a 60% import tax on most goods and 100% on Chinese-imported electric vehicles. It now become clear why Elon Musk has suddenly become so interested in the campaign.
Increased import taxes of 10–20% will be applied to all other countries commodities and products, which will hurt South African exports.
Another possibility is that SA will be excluded from AGOA trade, which will have a negative impact on our exports. But it only accounts for 2.7% of total exports. The overall BRICS commerce in SA is seven times that of AGOA.
If this tariff hikes occur, how will China react?
They and all other countries will begin to take care of themselves. There will be more buzz surrounding BRICS and a new currency.

If the tariffs are implemented, everything will ultimately become more costly in the USA, which may lead to a second wave of inflation concerns. To counteract this, interest rates in the USA will need to be raised once more.

The US dollar and US stocks will likely rise if Trump wins, while US bonds will likely fall.
His policies, particularly those pertaining to immigration and imports, will benefit the US economy and job opportunities in the near future.
However, given the rising cost of goods and the reactions of other nations, we will have to wait and see whether it doesn't have a detrimental effect on them in the medium to long run.

Whoever wins will have an impact on the rest of the planet.

How to invest in a volatile market

By Geo Botha • July 4, 2025
How to invest in a volatile market: 3 Principles to keep in mind ‘In the short term, markets can be very volatile depending on which news story makes headlines. However, over the longer-term investors are always rewarded for staying invested and riding out the waves.’ We know this by now, we have heard it many times before and historical data proves it. Yet it’s easier said than done. When it gets to our own money we are emotionally involved and there is a part of us that believes that this time, it might indeed be different. What if the markets never recover and I suffer permanent capital loss. And with the increase power of AI and social media, it feels like my portfolio hangs on the thread of a single Tweet. In this article Stephen Bernard, an actuarial analyst form our partner Allan Gray share his views, backed by statistics and historical evidence: Read the article here: https://www.allangray.co.za/latest-insights/markets-and-economy/how-to-invest-in-a-volatile-market/

Invest Globally, Prosper Locally: Offshore Strategies for SA Investors

By Ruvan J Grobler • July 1, 2025
In an increasingly interconnected global economy, South African investors are finding compelling reasons to look beyond local borders when building long-term wealth. Offshore investing offers access to broader, more resilient markets, particularly in developed economies with stronger currencies and more stable political environments. Given South Africa’s constrained economic growth, fiscal uncertainty, and the rand’s vulnerability as an emerging market currency, allocating a portion of your portfolio offshore can serve as both a growth engine and a hedge. Investing offshore provides exposure to world-leading companies, industries, and fund managers that are often unavailable in the local market. It allows investors to participate in innovation-led growth in sectors like technology, healthcare, and clean energy, which are typically underrepresented on the JSE. Most importantly, it supports diversification—not just across asset classes, but across geographies, currencies, and economic cycles—reducing concentration risk tied to the South African economy. Key Reasons to Invest Offshore: Diversification: Reduce reliance on South African markets and benefit from a broader global opportunity set. Currency Hedge: Protect your wealth against rand depreciation by investing in hard currencies. Global Access: Gain exposure to top-tier international asset managers and world-class investments. Growth Potential: Participate in faster-growing economies and industries driving global expansion. Important Considerations for South African Tax Residents Before investing offshore, it’s essential to evaluate how your investment aligns with your broader financial planning, particularly around access, succession, taxation, and estate planning: Flexibility: Will you have access to your funds when needed? What types of investments can you hold? Succession Planning: Can your investment be transferred to your heirs? Will Capital Gains Tax (CGT) apply? Tax Compliance: Is the structure tax-efficient, and what must be declared on your tax return? Estate Structuring: Will your investment attract foreign estate duties? Is an offshore executor required? An Efficient Offshore Solution: The Offshore Wrapper A tailored offshore wrapper can simplify many of these complexities, offering a cost-effective and administratively streamlined solution. Key benefits include: No exposure to offshore estate duties No South African executor fees on death No inheritance tax in the offshore jurisdiction Ability to nominate beneficiaries directly for smooth succession Creditor protection for assets held within the structure Consolidation of various investments (e.g., share portfolios, funds) under one structure Minimum investment from $25,000 Tax Treatment The offshore wrapper also provides significant tax efficiency: Taxes are calculated and settled annually by the platform—no action required by the investor CGT is capped at 12%, and income tax at 30% Taxes are applied to USD returns, meaning rand depreciation is not taxed Reach out to me at ruvan@bovest.co.za for more information. Ruvan J Grobler RFP™ (PGDip Financial Planning)