Who will win the US election?

PJ Botha • November 4, 2024

2024 will be remembered as election year, with more people than ever before casting ballots worldwide.
The US elections on November 5th will be the most significant election.
It is the most significant since it will influence not just the future of the nation but also that of the entire world.

The following topics were covered in one of the fascinating discussions we had at the Ninety One Advisor Forum with Kevin Lings, Stanlib's economist as one of the speakers.

Who is going to win the election?
Although it depends on the poll you use, you can't always trust them because they are somewhat biased towards the reader demographic.
The website fivethirtyeight.com, which aggregates all the data, is a poll of polls.
According to this website the difference between Trump and Harris was as much as 3% in September which shrank to 0.9% on November 4.
Trump's side is gaining ground.
Harris has a slight advantage according to the polls, but momentum is on Trump’s side.

According to the polls, Clinton would have won the Trump vs. Clinton election. The explanation that was later offered was that there were many Trump fans who were also closet backers. 

You will have to support Trump if you are a betting man, and you look at the election odds.
Trump has a 53.3% chance of winning, while Harris has a 46.3% chance, according to electionbettingodds.com.

In the end, the most important question is whether the election outcome will matter.
The answer is a simple “ yes”. Most things will remain the same if Harris prevails, but if Trump wins there will be significant policy changes.
One of Trump's main campaign pledges, raising import tariffs, will have to be fulfilled if he wins.
He pledged that all Chinese imports would be subject to a 60% import tax on most goods and 100% on Chinese-imported electric vehicles. It now become clear why Elon Musk has suddenly become so interested in the campaign.
Increased import taxes of 10–20% will be applied to all other countries commodities and products, which will hurt South African exports.
Another possibility is that SA will be excluded from AGOA trade, which will have a negative impact on our exports. But it only accounts for 2.7% of total exports. The overall BRICS commerce in SA is seven times that of AGOA.
If this tariff hikes occur, how will China react?
They and all other countries will begin to take care of themselves. There will be more buzz surrounding BRICS and a new currency.

If the tariffs are implemented, everything will ultimately become more costly in the USA, which may lead to a second wave of inflation concerns. To counteract this, interest rates in the USA will need to be raised once more.

The US dollar and US stocks will likely rise if Trump wins, while US bonds will likely fall.
His policies, particularly those pertaining to immigration and imports, will benefit the US economy and job opportunities in the near future.
However, given the rising cost of goods and the reactions of other nations, we will have to wait and see whether it doesn't have a detrimental effect on them in the medium to long run.

Whoever wins will have an impact on the rest of the planet.

LEEF DOELGERIG AS AFGETREDENE

By Dr Riaan Botha • October 31, 2025
Die regte gesindheid teenoor aftrede verseker dat ons gelukkig aftree. Die nuwe vryheid wat jy beleef as ’n afgetredene is om jou eie tydskedule te bepaal en om te doen wat jy jou hele werkende lewe na gehunker het. Hierdie fase in jou lewe is kosbaar en moet ten volle benut word. Bepaal die doel wat jy as ’n afgetredene moet uitleef. Dit is meer as om net jou belangrikse bate – jou tyd – te gee vir die saak waarin jy ’n verskil wil maak. Gedurende jou werkende loopbaan het jy soveel kundigheid opgedoen om suksesvol te kan wees en om jou doel uit te leef. Hierdie kennis sowel as die lewenservaring wat opgedoen is, stel jou daartoe in staat om ’n verskil te kan maak. Party afgetredenes onttrek uit die besige samelewing en raak stil voor die Hemelse Vader om te bepaal wat die doel is wat uitgeleef kan word. Om hierdie doel uit te leef is dit belangrik om saam met ander afgetredenes te werk. Om te verhoed dat jy na aftrede vereensaam moet jy moeite doen om by mense in te skakel omdat sosiale aktiwiteite baie belangrik is. Doen navorsing om te bepaal by watter groep mense jy graag wil inskakel. Die realiteit in Suid Afrika is dat talle afgetredenes geraak word deur die vertrek van hul kinders na die buiteland. Die ondersteuningsrol van kinders in die lewe van afgetredenes moet nie onderskat word nie veral as die ouers verswak of siek word. Dit is daarom belangrik dat verhoudings met mense gevorm word wat kan help om die afwesigheid van kinders te versag. Om doelgerig te leef is ’n keuse wat jy as afgetredene maak. Om besig te wees met aktiwiteite wat nie net jou eie lewe bevoordeel nie maar ook die lewe van ander, is kosbaar en moet ten volle benut word. Die beloning wat hierdeur ontvang word kan nie in geld terme bereken word nie maar wel deur dankbaarheid en vreugde.  Voorspoed word toegewens aan alle afgetredenes wat die keuse maak om wel ’n verskil in hulle samelewings te maak!

South Africa has been removed from the Grey List.

By PJ Botha • October 30, 2025
South Africa has officially been removed off the Financial Action Task Force's (FATF) grey list as of October 24, 2025. This comes after 33 months of work to strengthen the country's anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism systems. Why Was South Africa Grey Listed in the first place? In February 2023, the FATF placed South Africa on the grey list due to weaknesses in its ability to enforce anti-money laundering regulations. These included ineffective investigations and prosecutions, particularly in severe money laundering and terrorist financing cases. To get off the list, South Africa needed to accomplish 22 action items. By June 2025, the FATF reported that all items had been handled. Although some areas, like as prosecutions, require improvement, this did not prevent the country from being removed from the list. What is the Function of the Financial Intelligence Centre (FIC)? The Financial Intelligence Centre helped South Africa achieve FATF regulations. It enhanced how it oversees businesses and professions that deal with money but are not banks, employing stronger risk assessment tools and compliance measures. The FIC also collaborated extensively with law enforcement, promoting the use of financial intelligence in investigations. This resulted in genuine results, such as the freezing of approximately R157 million in suspected illegal funds and the recovery of nearly R144 million in stolen money. What impact did the listing have on the Economy and Investments? Being on the Grey List increased the cost and complexity of foreign transactions. It also harmed investor confidence, particularly while South Africa holds the G20 presidency in 2025. Financial experts predict that now that the country is no longer on the list, investor sentiment will improve. According to PPS Investments, this may lead to: Improved access to global capital. A stronger Rand. Increased interest in South African stocks A better climate for the local property markets. This change contributes to a more favourable view for South Africa's economy and investment landscape. How do South Africa compares to other countries that was grey listed? South Africa's 33-month stint on the grey list is comparable to other countries. Tanzania required 33 months, Nigeria 25 months, Mozambique 37 months, and Burkina Faso 57 months. What's next? South Africa is already planning for the next FATF mutual evaluation, which is scheduled for 2026-2027. The FIC states that, while leaving the grey list is a significant step forward, the country must continue to improve its mechanisms for combating financial crime.