Who will win the US election?

PJ Botha • November 4, 2024

2024 will be remembered as election year, with more people than ever before casting ballots worldwide.
The US elections on November 5th will be the most significant election.
It is the most significant since it will influence not just the future of the nation but also that of the entire world.

The following topics were covered in one of the fascinating discussions we had at the Ninety One Advisor Forum with Kevin Lings, Stanlib's economist as one of the speakers.

Who is going to win the election?
Although it depends on the poll you use, you can't always trust them because they are somewhat biased towards the reader demographic.
The website fivethirtyeight.com, which aggregates all the data, is a poll of polls.
According to this website the difference between Trump and Harris was as much as 3% in September which shrank to 0.9% on November 4.
Trump's side is gaining ground.
Harris has a slight advantage according to the polls, but momentum is on Trump’s side.

According to the polls, Clinton would have won the Trump vs. Clinton election. The explanation that was later offered was that there were many Trump fans who were also closet backers. 

You will have to support Trump if you are a betting man, and you look at the election odds.
Trump has a 53.3% chance of winning, while Harris has a 46.3% chance, according to electionbettingodds.com.

In the end, the most important question is whether the election outcome will matter.
The answer is a simple “ yes”. Most things will remain the same if Harris prevails, but if Trump wins there will be significant policy changes.
One of Trump's main campaign pledges, raising import tariffs, will have to be fulfilled if he wins.
He pledged that all Chinese imports would be subject to a 60% import tax on most goods and 100% on Chinese-imported electric vehicles. It now become clear why Elon Musk has suddenly become so interested in the campaign.
Increased import taxes of 10–20% will be applied to all other countries commodities and products, which will hurt South African exports.
Another possibility is that SA will be excluded from AGOA trade, which will have a negative impact on our exports. But it only accounts for 2.7% of total exports. The overall BRICS commerce in SA is seven times that of AGOA.
If this tariff hikes occur, how will China react?
They and all other countries will begin to take care of themselves. There will be more buzz surrounding BRICS and a new currency.

If the tariffs are implemented, everything will ultimately become more costly in the USA, which may lead to a second wave of inflation concerns. To counteract this, interest rates in the USA will need to be raised once more.

The US dollar and US stocks will likely rise if Trump wins, while US bonds will likely fall.
His policies, particularly those pertaining to immigration and imports, will benefit the US economy and job opportunities in the near future.
However, given the rising cost of goods and the reactions of other nations, we will have to wait and see whether it doesn't have a detrimental effect on them in the medium to long run.

Whoever wins will have an impact on the rest of the planet.

Familie Finansiële Beplanning. Waarom?

By Dr. Riaan Botha • June 2, 2026
Die uitdrukking “Twee koppe is beter as een” is welbekend en dui daarop dat samewerking voordelig is. Is daar voordele vir lede van ’n familie wanneer hulle gesamentlik familie-finansiële beplanning doen, asook inkomstevoorsiening deur middel van familiebesighede? Familiebesighede in Suid-Afrika, waar gesamentlike finansiële beplanning plaasvind, is ’n belangrike deel van die ekonomie. Talle Afrikaanssprekendes is afkomstig van die platteland waar hulle in ’n familiebesigheidsomgewing op plase grootgeword het. Weens ’n verskeidenheid van redes verander die landbou-familiebesigheidsomgewing, en sommige van hierdie families verskuif hul familiesakebelange met groot sukses na ander sektore van die ekonomie. Entrepreneursvaardighede word egter benodig om vir jouself ’n inkomste te skep. Bovest is behulpsaam om die nodige entrepreneurskundigheid deur middel van die TV-program “Welvaartskeppers” aan die kykerspubliek bekend te stel. Bykomend hiertoe word finansiële advies aan families gegee om sodoende maksimum finansiële voordeel te verkry. Indien die voordele van familie-finansiële beplanning met dié van persoonlike finansiële beplanning vergelyk word, bestaan die volgende voordele: Laer gesamentlike fooie vir familielede kan beding word; Meer effektiewe belastingskale kan benut word deur beleggingskapitaal tussen gades te verdeel; Die oordrag van welvaart na die volgende geslag kan vergemaklik word deur familietrusts te gebruik; Gedeelde verantwoordelikheid bevorder dissipline om by langtermyn-kapitaalbouplanne te hou; Verskillende lewensiklusse en risiko-aptyte help om die familie se beleggingsportefeulje te balanseer; Die verskille in ouderdom en lewensfases ondersteun die uiteenlopende eiendomsbehoeftes van familielede. Aangesien die finansiële beplanning van families meer kompleks is, benodig dit samewerking tussen die verskillende geslagte om behoeftes en verwagtinge te verwesenlik. Die rol van die Bovest-adviseur in hierdie proses kan nie onderskat word nie.

Financial Lessons to Learn from Ultra Trail Running

By Godfried Kotzé • June 2, 2026
This past weekend, Bovest Wealth Management had the privilege of being part of something truly special: a race, a journey, and a family of runners who took part in the MUT - the Mountain Ultra-Trail - in the breathtaking beauty of George. Together with my close friend Scotty, I ran the marathon. But as is so often the case with endurance events, I walked away with far more than tired legs and a medal. I walked away with lessons. Lessons about faith, finances, discipline, consistency, community, fellowship, and perspective. Ultra trail running has a unique way of stripping life back to the essentials. Out there on the mountain, there are no shortcuts. You cannot fake preparation. You cannot outsource endurance. You cannot buy resilience at the final aid station. You have to show up, step by step, climb by climb, kilometre by kilometre. In many ways, our financial lives are no different. Discipline: The Foundation of the Journey No marathon is completed by accident. It requires discipline long before race day. Early mornings, training runs, strength work, nutrition, rest, and preparation all form part of the unseen investment. Financial success works the same way. Building wealth is rarely about one dramatic decision. It is about the daily discipline of living within your means, saving consistently, avoiding unnecessary debt, planning for tax, protecting your family, and making wise investment choices over time. Proverbs 21:5 reminds us: "The plans of the diligent lead surely to abundance, but everyone who is hasty comes only to poverty." Discipline is not always exciting, but it is deeply powerful. It is the quiet commitment to the right things, even when nobody is watching. On the mountain, discipline gets you to the next checkpoint. In your finances, discipline carries you toward long-term freedom. Community: We Were Not Created to Run Alone One of the most beautiful parts of the MUT weekend was the sense of community. Runners encouraged each other. Families supported from the sidelines. Friends waited, cheered, prayed, laughed, and pushed one another forward. With Scotty alongside me, the journey became lighter. The difficult moments became bearable. The experience became richer. The same is true in our financial lives. We need people around us who encourage wisdom, accountability, and growth. A good financial adviser, tax specialist, fiduciary expert, family member, spouse, mentor, or trusted friend can help us make better decisions and remain focused on the bigger picture. Ecclesiastes 4:9-10 says: "Two are better than one; because they have a good return for their labour. For if they fall, the one will lift up his fellow;..." No one builds a meaningful legacy alone. Wealth is not only about numbers on a statement. It is about people, purpose, stewardship, and responsibility. Perspective: Seeing the Creator Through His Creation Perhaps the greatest takeaway from the weekend was perspective. Running through the beautiful mountains of George, surrounded by the majesty of creation, one cannot help but become aware of the greatness of God. The fresh air, the views, the silence, the strength to continue, and the people alongside us all point to something far bigger than ourselves. There were moments on the route where the mighty Name of the Lord could change the entire atmosphere. A prayer, a word of gratitude, a moment of worship, or simply lifting one's eyes to the mountains reminded me that we are not alone. This perspective is essential in life and in finance. Money is important, but it is not ultimate. Planning is important, but God remains our provider. Wealth can create comfort, but only Christ gives true peace. A well-structured estate can leave an inheritance, but a life of faith leaves a legacy. When we see our finances through the lens of faith, everything changes. We become less anxious, more generous, more intentional, and more aware of the responsibility we carry. The Finish Line Matter Every race has a finish line. So does every financial journey. The question is not whether we will reach a finish line, but whether we are preparing wisely for it. Are we disciplined? Are we consistent? Are we surrounded by the right people? Are we walking in fellowship? Do we have the right perspective? Ultra trail running teaches us that endurance matters. Preparation matters. Community matters. Faith matters. The same is true when building, protecting, and transferring wealth. By Godfried Kotze BCom Accounting, MCom Taxation (UP), SAIPA, FISA Member