Six Key Themes for 2025

Ruvan J Grobler • January 13, 2025

This year promises to be another wild one. These talking points are all driven by external factors that we as retail investors have no control over, but it's important to consider the effect that they can have on our portfolios. Both positive and negative outcomes will hold opportunities for patient investors.


  • Grey Listing: In February 2023 South Africa was placed on the Financial Action Task Force(FATF) grey list for not meeting international standards on prevention of money laundering and terrorist financing. The FATF will conduct an onsite visit in February 2025 to confirm which actions were taken and make its recommendation in June 2025. If we are successfully removed from the grey list, we can expect increased foreign investment into the South African economy.


  • SA Interest Rates: In 2024 the MPC finally started cutting rates and with the final meeting in November, the MPC reduced interest rates by 25 basis points bringing the prime lending rate to 11.25%. Economists are predicting further 50-75 basis point cuts throughout 2025. I personally believe we have scope for a bit more, but we have seen the MPC to be extremely conservative.


  • Donald Trump and South Africa: If Donald Trump pushes for US centred policies while renegotiating trade policies, global trade could be disrupted and might negatively affect South African exports. The AGOA agreement is set to expire in September 2025, but we hope to see it be extended again.


  • US Dollar Dominance: US Centred policies may cause volatility in global markets which can strengthen the Dollar. Emerging market currencies like the Rand may then weaken. This does however create opportunities for SA investors investing in Dollars.


  • Geopolitical Tension: Tensions have been high in recent years with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and recently with the Israel-Palestine conflict. We may however see tensions intensify between the US and China. This will disrupt global exports and put extra strain on China’s ailing economy. In 2024 foreign investors became net sellers of China stocks over these concerns.


  • Advancements in Artificial Intelligence(AI): It’s almost impossible to keep up with the new advancements in AI we see every day. As an example, *in December researchers at Stanford John Hopkins taught robots how to do medical procedures on their own. These advancements may keep on fuelling the growth in AI and tech stocks in 2025.


*https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2024/12/22/robots-learn-surgical-tasks/?utm_source=superhuman&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=what-to-expect-at-ces-2025&_bhlid=a0ae4312fd577606199656c699bb259e1b38726c)


Ruvan J Grobler RFP™ (PGDip Financial Planning)


By Ruvan J Grobler February 6, 2025
Business owners are wealthy, aren’t they? Most of them are in terms of equity in their own business, their main focus. But personal finance as a business owner goes much deeper and that’s where we’ve seen neglect. Here are two of the biggest mistakes I’ve seen business owners make with their personal finances: Neglect personal finances: Businesses need cash to expand. And all too often, the decision is made to invest all the cash back into the business instead of using a portion to expand personal portfolios. The thinking is always: “expanding the business will provide higher future income”. But this cycle only continues and compounds the personal finance neglect. We see business owners start planning for retirement after building the business their entire life. The retirement plan is to sell the business, but there is no buyer and no personal investment portfolio to fall back on. Insurance overcontribution: Life insurance will most definitely provide for loved ones on your passing and protect your finances against disability and illness. It’s a crucial part of financial planning and the first step towards moving toward financial certainty. But big insurance premiums will not bring you closer to financial freedom. I don’t blame you, there are many financial advisors who use business owners as an opportunity for large premium policies with large upfront commissions. Life insurance should be anchored in financial planning principles, only take out cover for the need identified through comprehensive analysis. Business owners understand risk, and to not diversify your own retirement income is a mistake you’ll come to realize when it’s too late. There can be a healthy mid-point between investing back into your business and investing in your personal finances. We often forget that financial planning provides solutions to problems around tax and estate planning, it’s not merely about insurance and investments. From operational effectiveness to successful distribution, business owners need to prioritize their time. Making it extremely important to have a trustworthy Wealth Manager who can effectively navigate the pitfalls and challenges of a successful business owner’s personal finances. What steps can you take with your Wealth Manager? Review your personal budget. Assess your level of risk and only cover what’s needed. Do a stock take of your investment portfolio. Set financial goals and allocate funds from your budget to reach them. Ruvan J Grobler RFP™ (PGDip Financial Planning)
By PJ Botha January 17, 2025
"The only things that hurts more than paying an income tax is not having to pay an income tax." Dewar, Thomas. This quote is undoubtedly optimistic, but it also contains some truth. Tax payment is both a luxury and a hardship. Although you must pay taxes of some kind, there are ways to lessen your tax liability. It's critical to distinguish between tax avoidance and tax evasion before we begin. It goes without saying that tax avoidance is against the law and unacceptable. Tax avoidance from an investing standpoint refers to avoiding paying needless taxes as a result of poor investment planning. As February, the end of the financial year, is drawing near, now is the great time to assess your existing financial status and make the most of the tax benefits available to you. There are the following choices: Retirement Annuities Retirement Annuities (RAs) are among the best options for tax planning. You can take advantage of the following noteworthy tax advantages: Your voluntary donations to a RA are tax deductible up to 27.5% of your taxable income, or R350 000. This is known as an individual's tax benefit. This implies that the money you save in a RA may be taken into account when calculating your income tax and subtracted from the amount of tax due to SARS. For the duration of the investment, there are no applicable income, capital gains, or dividend taxes. Depending on prior lump sum withdrawals, up to R550 000 of your lump sum payout may be tax-free upon retirement. The remaining amount is thereafter subject to taxation at the rates specified in the retirement lump sum tax table. Neither a living annuity nor a RA are subject to estate duty. Lump amounts received by beneficiaries upon the death of a RA investor are free from estate duty (with the exception of contributions that are prohibited). Tax-free savings Different to a RA, the contributions to a tax-free savings account are made from post-tax income and you don’t get the tax benefit on contributions. However, you are free to take your money out whenever you choose. An excellent approach to supplement your retirement funds or save for a long-term objective, such as your children's university fees. During the investment period, no income, capital gains, or dividend taxes are due, just like with a RA. Remember that you have a lifetime contribution cap of R500 000 and an annual contribution cap of R36 000 (or R3 000 per month) for all of your tax-free savings accounts from all providers. Additional tax tactics you may use include: Tax loss harvesting: This tactic involves selling some financial assets at a loss to lower your tax obligation at the end of the year. You can use tax loss harvesting to offset capital gains that result from selling other investments or assets at a profit. Utilise your exemptions: You are eligible for a R 40,000 annual capital gains exemption. Perhaps it's time to move across investment funds or take a profit on a well-executed investment. You can also take advantage of an interest exemption for R 23 800 (R 34 500 for individuals over 65). Your investment plan may need to be reevaluated if your interest exceeds that amount. Donations: You are exempt from donation tax if you donate R100,000 annually. To lower your estate for estate duty reasons, now is an excellent moment to give R 100,000 to a family trust or your kids. You will also receive a deduction for your donation if it is made to a charity that has Section 18A approval. The aforementioned can undoubtedly lessen the tax burden, but it won't eliminate it. Paying your fair amount of taxes is important, but you shouldn't pay more than is necessary.
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